← All articles
ControlBudgeting

The forecast is the number that matters

On a fixed price the budget cannot be renegotiated after signature, so I read it every week, while there is still time to change where it lands.

Ionut Ilasi3 min read

On a fixed-price project the revenue is agreed at signature, so the budget is the one number I cannot renegotiate later. Every day the team spends comes out of the margin. For that reason I read the budget every week, not at the end of a quarter, when it can only be explained.

Three numbers, every period

In every reporting period I record three figures: actual, budget and forecast. Actual is what has been spent so far. Budget is what the plan said we would have spent by now. Forecast is where I expect the project to land if nothing changes.

Of the three, the forecast matters most. Actual tells me where I have been, and the budget is a plan I wrote earlier. The forecast shows where I will end up while there is still time to act, and on a fixed price that is the only moment when acting is cheap.

Progress against budget, not spend alone

I keep the forecast honest by building it from the work that remains, not by assuming the original budget will hold. A forecast that always equals the budget is not a forecast, it is a hope.

Spend on its own says very little. A project that has used half of its budget may be on track or in trouble, depending on how much of the development is actually done. So I follow development progress against budget and ask one plain question: are we ahead or behind?

I do not ask it alone. The project managers meet every week in the PMO sync, and each of us brings the same view of our own project. Putting the projects side by side makes patterns visible that a single project manager would not see.

When a project is behind

If a project is behind, I first try to improve it myself: remove what blocks the team, tighten the priorities, look at how the work is split. Only then do I look across the portfolio.

Often another project is ahead of its budget. In that case I can bring a little extra capacity from that project to the one that is behind. It is a small move, made early, and it costs far less than a large rescue later.

Where will we land, and what can we still change?

Behind is information, not blame

The weekly rhythm turns a budget into a conversation. If the forecast shows that we will exceed the budget because the scope grew, that goes to the client as a sized change, with numbers. If it is because our own estimate was too low, we carry it, and I say so early.

Moving capacity between projects also keeps people productive instead of waiting. In the delivery division I led, this kind of balancing was part of how bench time stayed at zero while billability grew year on year.

A budget reported only at the end is a report on the past. A budget forecast every period is a tool for steering.

Previous articleTreat security requirements as scope from day one Next articleA red status is information, not a failure

Working on something complex?

If this is how you want your next programme to be run, let's talk.